2012 hoopla

This is what started this whole line of research; television shows on the History Channel and others outlining the predictions, both ancient and modern all pointing to one of a small number of natural disasters occurring at approximately the same future point in time (12/21/2012).

Here is the short list:

• Mayan Calendar
• Nostradamus
• Mother Shipton
• Edgar Cayce
• The Holy Bible
• The Bible Codes
• Internet Data Mining  [Web.Bot]

Take heart, the list is only seven (7) items in length; the odds against this are only almost astronomical.

This is of course the problem; the odds against this occurrence are great, nearly on the order of an alien child living among you. With this many indicators along with the respective odds an event of some sort becomes virtually inevitable. Unfortunately, the exact nature of the event is still quite impossible to predict, even with some of the predictions agreeing with each other.

It is my personal belief that there will not be a single event, but rather several, occurring over a period of 2 - 4 years that will be very taxing on the Earth and its inhabitants.

Using Bayesian inference we can see that the probability of something happening is rather high; on the order of 0.888575 (with certainity = 1). While this is not a certainty, it does appear that there will be a major event between now and shortly after the end of 2012.

Will this be the end of Humanity? Not likely! Humans have developed technologies that will help them to survive, though; it will likely seriously reduce the population of Earth across all species.